The price of Bitcoin (BTC) hasn’t been boring, but with volatility at an all-time low, price action could be primed for major moves that are heavily bearish or bullish.
With Bitcoin’s price fluctuating in a narrow range between $18,800 and $20,250, traders and investors are anticipating significant shifts due to range bound momentum.The most popular cryptocurrency, on the other hand, appears to have other plans for HODLers.
Big move coming up.
In a recent tweet, crypto analyst Michal van de Poppe emphasized that the Bitcoin volatility index has fallen below 25, which historically signifies “a guaranteed recipe for massive volatility. “He also predicted that Bitcoin would make a “very big move on the horizon.”
Notably, price action exhibits an abrupt extreme move when the volatility index drops to such low levels, as was the case in the previous:
- Crash to $3,000 in 2018, a 50% price drop – major bearish move
- Break above $4,000 to $14,000 in 2019, a 240% price appreciation – massive rally
- Break above $10,000 in 2020 – start of the 2020 rally
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was $19,393, or 0.58 percent lower than the previous day’s high of $19,000.There were no major bullish catalysts for BTC’s short-term price action due to decreased trade volumes, low retail interest in BTC, and more bearish macro conditions.
On the other hand, a look at the In/Out of the Money Around Price indicator revealed that the most important support level for the price of Bitcoin was at the $19,000 price level, where 1.19 million addresses purchased over 625,000 BTC.
A bearish period for the top cryptocurrency could begin if the price falls below the crucial $19,000 level during periods of low volatility.
Long-term BTC holders losing money
The on-chain cost basis for Bitcoin Short-Term Holders had fallen below that of Long-Term Holders, according to Glassnode data. As a result, buyers of Bitcoin over the past five months have a better cost basis than HODLers who waited out the 2020-22 cycle’s volatility.
The initial HODLers’ market confidence was in jeopardy because long-term HODLers were losing money.
In addition, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Signal (7d MA) had surpassed its one-month peak of 184.148. Market cap growth that exceeds on-chain Transfer Volume are typically reflected in high values.
The BTC price appeared to be at a pivotal crossroads where its short-term price action, with the $19,000 mark serving as a deciding point, could determine its future course.
The $16,400 price level may serve as the next major support if BTC price falls below $19,000.However, the $22,750 level would serve as the next level of resistance in the event of a bullish breakout.